Exeter City vs Chesterfield: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 46Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)St James Park, Exeter, Devon
The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Chesterfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Exeter City vs Chesterfield?
A very open match: only 25 Elo points separate Exeter City (1,803) and Chesterfield (1,828).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Exeter City have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Chesterfield have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Scunthorpe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Exeter City win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Chesterfield win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 30, 2024 | Exeter City 2-0 Chesterfield | FA Cup |
| Apr 17, 2018 | Exeter City 2-1 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Nov 18, 2017 | Chesterfield 1-0 Exeter City | League Two |
| Apr 18, 2014 | Chesterfield 1-1 Exeter City | League Two |
| Dec 20, 2013 | Exeter City 0-2 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Apr 27, 2013 | Chesterfield 4-0 Exeter City | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Exeter City vs Chesterfield on Nov 30, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Chesterfield score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Chesterfield | 0.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Exeter City sit 13th in League Two (3 points from 2 matches) and Chesterfield sit 16th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Exeter City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Chesterfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Exeter City vs Chesterfield?
- The Footlab model makes Exeter City the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Chesterfield.
- Where and when is Exeter City vs Chesterfield played?
- Exeter City vs Chesterfield is played on May 8, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at St James Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.