Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)City Light Stadium, Okayama
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Fagiano Okayama. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo?
A very open match: only 66 Elo points separate Fagiano Okayama (1,938) and FC Tokyo (2,003).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fagiano Okayama have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; FC Tokyo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Beluga Rosso Iwami(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(home) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(home) | 6-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Fagiano Okayama win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 FC Tokyo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2025 | FC Tokyo 3-1 Fagiano Okayama | J1 League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Fagiano Okayama 1-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs Fagiano Okayama on Oct 25, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Fagiano Okayama score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; FC Tokyo score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fagiano Okayama | 1.4 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| FC Tokyo | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fagiano Okayama sit 9th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and FC Tokyo sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Fagiano Okayama.
- Where and when is Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo played?
- Fagiano Okayama vs FC Tokyo is played on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at City Light Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsUrawa
- Oct 31, 2026V-varen NagasakivsTokyo Verdy
- Oct 31, 2026Vissel KobevsNagoya Grampus
- Oct 31, 2026KashimavsCerezo Osaka
- Oct 31, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsKawasaki Frontale
- Oct 31, 2026JEF United ChibavsAvispa Fukuoka
- Oct 31, 2026Kyoto SangavsShimizu S-pulse
- Oct 31, 2026Machida ZelviavsGamba Osaka