Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)K’s Denki Stadium, Mito
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Mito Hollyhock. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima starts as the favourite with a 258-point Elo edge (2,088 vs 1,829).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mito Hollyhock have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(away) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| May 30, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(away) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Mito Hollyhock win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2014 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-0 Mito Hollyhock | Emperor Cup |
Last archived meeting: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Mito Hollyhock on Aug 27, 2014
How many goals should we expect?
Mito Hollyhock score 1.1 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.1 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mito Hollyhock | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.1 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mito Hollyhock sit 7th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Mito Hollyhock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Mito Hollyhock.
- Where and when is Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima played?
- Mito Hollyhock vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is played on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at K’s Denki Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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