Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Kashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Cerezo Osaka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka?
Kashima starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (2,158 vs 2,017).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kashima have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Cerezo Osaka have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(home) | 3-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Vegalta Sendai(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tochigi City(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Kashima win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Cerezo Osaka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2025 | Kashima 3-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | Cerezo Osaka 1-0 Kashima | J1 League |
| Nov 30, 2024 | Cerezo Osaka 0-2 Kashima | J1 League |
| Mar 2, 2024 | Kashima 1-1 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Kashima 1-0 Cerezo Osaka | J1 League |
| May 7, 2023 | Cerezo Osaka 0-1 Kashima | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka on Sep 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kashima score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Cerezo Osaka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kashima sit 3rd in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Cerezo Osaka sit 6th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka?
- The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 54%, against 24% for a draw and 22% for Cerezo Osaka.
- Where and when is Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka played?
- Kashima vs Cerezo Osaka is played on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Kashima Soccer Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsUrawa
- Oct 31, 2026V-varen NagasakivsTokyo Verdy
- Oct 31, 2026Vissel KobevsNagoya Grampus
- Oct 31, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsKawasaki Frontale
- Oct 31, 2026JEF United ChibavsAvispa Fukuoka
- Oct 31, 2026Kyoto SangavsShimizu S-pulse
- Oct 31, 2026Machida ZelviavsGamba Osaka
- Oct 31, 2026Mito HollyhockvsSanfrecce Hiroshima