Kashima vs Fagiano Okayama: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Kashima Soccer Stadium, Kashima
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Fagiano Okayama. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kashima vs Fagiano Okayama?
Kashima starts as the favourite with a 222-point Elo edge (2,158 vs 1,935).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kashima have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Fagiano Okayama have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(home) | 3-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 4-3 | J1 League |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Vegalta Sendai(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy(home) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Schalke 04(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Werder Bremen(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Kashima win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Fagiano Okayama win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2026 | Kashima 1-0 Fagiano Okayama | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jun 28, 2025 | Kashima 1-2 Fagiano Okayama | J1 League |
| Apr 20, 2025 | Fagiano Okayama 1-2 Kashima | J1 League |
| Sep 22, 2016 | Kashima 2-1 Fagiano Okayama | Emperor Cup |
Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Fagiano Okayama on Jan 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kashima score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Fagiano Okayama score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kashima | 1.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Fagiano Okayama | 1.3 | 1.0 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kashima sit 3rd in J1 League (9 points from 3 matches) and Fagiano Okayama sit 9th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Kashima | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 6 | 9 |
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kashima vs Fagiano Okayama?
- The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Fagiano Okayama.
- Where and when is Kashima vs Fagiano Okayama played?
- Kashima vs Fagiano Okayama is played on November 28, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Kashima Soccer Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 28, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsSanfrecce Hiroshima
- Nov 28, 2026Shimizu S-pulsevsUrawa
- Nov 28, 2026Nagoya GrampusvsAvispa Fukuoka
- Nov 28, 2026Vissel KobevsJEF United Chiba
- Nov 28, 2026Kawasaki FrontalevsGamba Osaka
- Nov 28, 2026Yokohama F. MarinosvsFC Tokyo
- Nov 28, 2026Kyoto SangavsCerezo Osaka
- Nov 28, 2026Machida ZelviavsTokyo Verdy