Where and when is V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy played?

V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy is played on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, in the J1 League.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, Nagasaki

V-varen Nagasaki

Tokyo Verdy

The Footlab model makes V-varen Nagasaki the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Tokyo Verdy. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy?

A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate V-varen Nagasaki (1,910) and Tokyo Verdy (1,872).

V-varen Nagasaki win47 %

Draw27 %

Tokyo Verdy win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, V-varen Nagasaki have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Tokyo Verdy have 5, 5 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

V-varen Nagasaki
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Ehime FC(home)	3-2	Emperor Cup
Aug 21, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(away)	2-4	J1 League
Aug 15, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-1	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kyoto Sanga(home)	2-1	J1 League
Jul 17, 2026	Utrecht(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs

Tokyo Verdy
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 26, 2026	Thespakusatsu Gunma(home)	4-1	Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(away)	0-0	J1 League
Aug 14, 2026	Kashiwa Reysol(home)	1-3	J1 League
Aug 9, 2026	Kawasaki Frontale(home)	1-1	J1 League
Jun 6, 2026	Gamba Osaka(home)	2-4	J1 League

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 2 V-varen Nagasaki win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Tokyo Verdy win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jul 5, 2023	Tokyo Verdy 1-2 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
May 7, 2023	V-varen Nagasaki 1-2 Tokyo Verdy	J2 League
Aug 6, 2022	Tokyo Verdy 1-0 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Feb 19, 2022	V-varen Nagasaki 1-1 Tokyo Verdy	J2 League
Nov 7, 2021	Tokyo Verdy 0-3 V-varen Nagasaki	J2 League
Apr 25, 2021	V-varen Nagasaki 1-1 Tokyo Verdy	J2 League

Last archived meeting: Tokyo Verdy vs V-varen Nagasaki on Jul 5, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

V-varen Nagasaki score 1.4 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Tokyo Verdy score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
V-varen Nagasaki	1.4	1.6	2	10/15	9/15
Tokyo Verdy	1.1	1.4	5	8/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

V-varen Nagasaki sit 16th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Tokyo Verdy sit 17th (2 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
16	V-varen Nagasaki	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
17	Tokyo Verdy	3	0	2	1	2	4	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy?: The Footlab model makes V-varen Nagasaki the favourite at 47%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Tokyo Verdy.
Where and when is V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy played?: V-varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy is played on October 31, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at PEACE STADIUM Connected by SoftBank, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.