Match

Fagiano Okayama vs Kashima: prediction and stats

J1 LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)City Light Stadium, Okayama

Fagiano OkayamaKashima

The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Fagiano Okayama. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Fagiano Okayama vs Kashima?

Kashima starts as the favourite with a 222-point Elo edge (2,160 vs 1,938).

Fagiano Okayama win31 %
Draw28 %
Kashima win41 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fagiano Okayama have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Kashima have 11, 2 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Fagiano Okayama
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 26, 2026Beluga Rosso Iwami(home)3-0Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026Tokyo Verdy(home)0-0J1 League
Aug 15, 2026V-varen Nagasaki(home)1-0J1 League
Aug 8, 2026Cerezo Osaka(away)1-2J1 League
Jul 25, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)1-3Friendlies Clubs
Kashima
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 26, 2026Suzuka Unlimited(home)3-0Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026Avispa Fukuoka(home)3-2J1 League
Aug 15, 2026Nagoya Grampus(home)2-1J1 League
Aug 7, 2026Yokohama F. Marinos(away)4-3J1 League
Jul 15, 2026Vegalta Sendai(home)5-0Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Fagiano Okayama win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Kashima win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Jan 20, 2026Kashima 1-0 Fagiano OkayamaFriendlies Clubs
Jun 28, 2025Kashima 1-2 Fagiano OkayamaJ1 League
Apr 20, 2025Fagiano Okayama 1-2 KashimaJ1 League
Sep 22, 2016Kashima 2-1 Fagiano OkayamaEmperor Cup

Last archived meeting: Kashima vs Fagiano Okayama on Jan 20, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Fagiano Okayama score 1.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Kashima score 2.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Fagiano Okayama1.41.077/157/15
Kashima2.01.086/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Fagiano Okayama sit 9th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Kashima sit 3rd (9 points from 3 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3Kashima3300969
9Fagiano Okayama3111224

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Fagiano Okayama vs Kashima?
The Footlab model makes Kashima the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Fagiano Okayama.
Where and when is Fagiano Okayama vs Kashima played?
Fagiano Okayama vs Kashima is played on February 27, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at City Light Stadium, in the J1 League.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Fagiano Okayama and Kashima

Ready to know everything about football?