Shimizu S-pulse vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 23Kick-off on February 27, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC)IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Shimizu S-pulse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Shimizu S-pulse vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima starts as the favourite with a 189-point Elo edge (2,090 vs 1,901).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Shimizu S-pulse have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 2-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(away) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Karlsruher SC(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Okinawa SV(home) | 4-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Shimizu S-pulse win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 11, 2026 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 1-1 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse 3-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
| Aug 6, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-0 Shimizu S-pulse | Emperor Cup |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Shimizu S-pulse 1-1 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Sep 3, 2022 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2-0 Shimizu S-pulse | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs Shimizu S-pulse on Apr 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Shimizu S-pulse score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shimizu S-pulse | 0.9 | 1.3 | 1 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Shimizu S-pulse sit 15th in J1 League (3 points from 3 matches) and Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 15 | Shimizu S-pulse | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Shimizu S-pulse vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Shimizu S-pulse.
- Where and when is Shimizu S-pulse vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima played?
- Shimizu S-pulse vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima is played on February 27, 2027 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at IAI Stadium Nihondaira, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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