FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Central'ny, Gomel
The Footlab model makes ML Vitebsk the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for FC Gomel. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk?
ML Vitebsk starts as the favourite with a 138-point Elo edge (1,840 vs 1,703).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Gomel have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; ML Vitebsk have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Slavia Mozyr(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Naftan(home) | 6-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Minsk(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Vitebsk(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Vitebsk(home) | 1-2 | Coppa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Bate Borisov(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Baranovichi(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Borac Banja Luka(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Sutjeska(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 FC Gomel win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 ML Vitebsk win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | ML Vitebsk 0-0 FC Gomel | Premier League |
| Nov 23, 2025 | ML Vitebsk 5-0 FC Gomel | Premier League |
| Jun 28, 2025 | FC Gomel 0-2 ML Vitebsk | Premier League |
| Feb 15, 2025 | FC Gomel 2-3 ML Vitebsk | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: ML Vitebsk vs FC Gomel on May 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FC Gomel score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; ML Vitebsk score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Gomel | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| ML Vitebsk | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Gomel sit 5th in Premier League (30 points from 19 matches) and ML Vitebsk sit 2nd (35 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | ML Vitebsk | 16 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 32 | 13 | 35 |
| 5 | FC Gomel | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 27 | 15 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk?
- The Footlab model makes ML Vitebsk the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for FC Gomel.
- Where and when is FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk played?
- FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Central'ny, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.