Arsenal vs Dinamo Brest: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Haradski, Dzerzhinsk
The Footlab model makes Dinamo Brest the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Arsenal. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arsenal vs Dinamo Brest?
Dinamo Brest starts as the favourite with a 188-point Elo edge (1,725 vs 1,537).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arsenal have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Dinamo Brest have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Belshina(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Slavia Mozyr(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Naftan(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Minsk(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Neman(home) | 2-3 | Coppa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Baranovichi(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Isloch Minsk R.(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Torpedo Zhodino(away) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Belshina(home) | 4-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Slavia Mozyr(away) | 1-2 | Coppa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Arsenal win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Dinamo Brest win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Dinamo Brest 3-0 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Dinamo Brest 1-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Arsenal 1-1 Dinamo Brest | Premier League |
| Feb 7, 2025 | Dinamo Brest 3-1 Arsenal | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 22, 2024 | Dinamo Brest 2-1 Arsenal | Premier League |
| Jul 28, 2024 | Dinamo Brest 4-1 Arsenal | Coppa |
Last archived meeting: Dinamo Brest vs Arsenal on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arsenal score 0.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Dinamo Brest score 2.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arsenal | 0.9 | 1.8 | 3 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Dinamo Brest | 2.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arsenal sit 11th in Premier League (21 points from 19 matches) and Dinamo Brest sit 4th (31 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 31 | 18 | 31 |
| 11 | Arsenal | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 31 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arsenal vs Dinamo Brest?
- The Footlab model makes Dinamo Brest the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Arsenal.
- Where and when is Arsenal vs Dinamo Brest played?
- Arsenal vs Dinamo Brest is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Haradski, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.