Naftan vs Belshina: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 24Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadyen Atlant, Novopolotsk
The Footlab model makes Belshina the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Naftan. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Naftan vs Belshina?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Naftan (1,463) and Belshina (1,521).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Naftan have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Belshina have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Neman(home) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Gomel(away) | 0-6 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | FC Dnepr Mogilev(away) | 3-3 | Premier League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Orsha(away) | 2-2 | Coppa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Dnepr Mogilev(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Dinamo Brest(away) | 0-4 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | FC Minsk(home) | 1-2 | Coppa |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Viktoriya Maryina Horka(away) | 8-1 | Coppa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Naftan win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Belshina win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Belshina 5-1 Naftan | Premier League |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Belshina 0-3 Naftan | Premier League |
| May 14, 2023 | Naftan 0-1 Belshina | Premier League |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Belshina 4-0 Naftan | 1. Division |
| Aug 4, 2021 | Naftan 0-0 Belshina | 1. Division |
| Apr 24, 2021 | Belshina 1-1 Naftan | 1. Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Naftan score 1.1 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Belshina score 1.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Naftan | 1.1 | 2.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Belshina | 1.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Naftan sit 16th in Premier League (10 points from 18 matches) and Belshina sit 13th (15 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Belshina | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 16 | 31 | 15 |
| 16 | Naftan | 18 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 16 | 42 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Naftan vs Belshina?
- The Footlab model makes Belshina the favourite at 38%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Naftan.
- Where and when is Naftan vs Belshina played?
- Naftan vs Belshina is played on October 10, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadyen Atlant, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.