FC Porto vs Estrela: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Estrela. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Porto vs Estrela?
FC Porto is a heavy favourite: 2,454 Elo points against 2,045, a 410-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FC Porto vs Estrela
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FC Porto
4-3-3- 11Pepê Aquino
- 7William
- 19André Silva
- 8Victor Mow Froholdt
- 22A. Varela
- 16Hwang In-Beom
- 20Alberto Baio
- 4J. Kiwior
- 5J. Bednarek
- 74Francisco Moura
- 99Diogo Costa
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 5S. Leković
- 21M. Scholze
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:01 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Porto have 13 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats; Estrela have 6, 6 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Manchester City(home) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Arouca(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FC Porto wins, 0 draws, 1 Estrela win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Estrela 1-2 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 15, 2025 | FC Porto 3-1 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Estrela 2-0 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 16, 2024 | FC Porto 2-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 17, 2024 | FC Porto 2-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 15, 2023 | Estrela 0-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Porto score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Estrela score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Estrela | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Porto sit 1st in Primeira Liga (24 points from 8 matches) and Estrela sit 10th (10 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 4 | 24 |
| 10 | Estrela | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 14 | 15 | 10 |
A question about FC Porto vs Estrela?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Estrela?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 72%, against 18% for a draw and 10% for Estrela.
- Where and when is FC Porto vs Estrela played?
- FC Porto vs Estrela is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Do Dragão, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.