FC Porto vs Napoli: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 4Kick-off on November 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 80%, against 13% for a draw and 7% for Napoli. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Porto vs Napoli?
FC Porto is a heavy favourite: 2,430 Elo points against 2,067, a 363-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for FC Porto vs Napoli
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
FC Porto
4-3-3- 11Pepê Aquino
- 19André Silva
- 17Borja Sainz
- 22A. Varela
- 8Victor Mow Froholdt
- 10Gabri Veiga
- 4J. Kiwior
- 74Francisco Moura
- 13P. Rosario
- 52Martim Fernandes
- 99Diogo Costa
Napoli
3-4-2-1- 19R. Højlund
- 22G. Di Lorenzo
- 11K. De Bruyne
- 21M. Politano
- 6B. Gilmour
- 8S. McTominay
- 23Giovane
- 13Amir Rrahmani
- 16Rafa Marín
- 5B. Badiashile
- 32V. Milinković-Savić
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 06:21 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Porto have 12 wins, 0 draws and 3 defeats; Napoli have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Maritimo(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Benfica(home) | 3-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Casa Pia(away) | 4-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Villarreal(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Frosinone(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Fiorentina(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Bologna(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
How many goals should we expect?
FC Porto score 2.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Napoli score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto | 2.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Napoli | 1.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Porto sit 30th in UEFA Champions League (0 points from 2 matches) and Napoli sit 32nd (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | FC Porto | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| 32 | Napoli | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
A question about FC Porto vs Napoli?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Porto vs Napoli?
- The Footlab AI model makes FC Porto the favourite at 80%, against 13% for a draw and 7% for Napoli.
- Where and when is FC Porto vs Napoli played?
- FC Porto vs Napoli is played on November 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Do Dragão, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.