Match

FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel: prediction and stats

2. BundesligaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. PauliHolstein Kiel

The Footlab AI model makes FC St. Pauli the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Holstein Kiel. The most likely score is 1-1. If FC St. Pauli wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 3,102 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 23, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?

A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate FC St. Pauli (2,001) and Holstein Kiel (1,980).

47%25%28%
FC St. Pauli winDrawHolstein Kiel win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FC St. Pauli

3-4-1-2
  1. 7Y. Niang
  2. 9Abdoulie Ceesay
  1. 20M. Rasmussen
  2. 11A. Pyrka
  3. 23L. Oppie
  4. 16J. Fujita
  5. 24C. Metcalfe
  1. 4D. Nemeth
  2. 8E. Smith
  3. 21L. Ritzka
  1. 1B. Voll

Holstein Kiel

4-1-4-1
  1. 19P. Harres
  1. 28J. Meffert
  2. 20A. Kaprálik
  3. 8G. Balzi
  4. 10J. Therkelsen
  5. 43T. Wiese
  1. 32H. Sekine
  2. 5N. Madsen
  3. 40Leon Parduzi
  4. 13I. Nekić
  1. 1T. Weiner

Computed on October 23, 2026 at 10:17 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC St. Pauli have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Holstein Kiel have 4, 6 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC St. Pauli
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 23, 2026SV Darmstadt 98(away)0-02. Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026Hannover 96(away)1-12. Bundesliga
Oct 11, 2026Karlsruher SC(home)2-02. Bundesliga
Oct 3, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(home)1-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 20, 2026Energie Cottbus(away)1-12. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 16, 2026Hertha BSC(home)0-02. Bundesliga
Oct 9, 2026Eintracht Braunschweig(away)0-12. Bundesliga
Oct 3, 2026Viborg(home)3-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026VfL Osnabrück(home)1-12. Bundesliga
Sep 13, 20261. FC Heidenheim(away)0-12. Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FC St. Pauli wins, 1 draw, 0 Holstein Kiel wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Aug 14, 2026Holstein Kiel 2-2 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Apr 12, 2025Holstein Kiel 1-2 FC St. PauliBundesliga
Nov 29, 2024FC St. Pauli 3-1 Holstein KielBundesliga
Feb 23, 2024Holstein Kiel 3-4 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Sep 17, 2023FC St. Pauli 5-1 Holstein Kiel2. Bundesliga
May 19, 2023Holstein Kiel 3-4 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli on Aug 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FC St. Pauli score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Holstein Kiel score 1.4 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FC St. Pauli1.41.3311/157/15
Holstein Kiel1.41.529/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC St. Pauli sit 7th in 2. Bundesliga (11 points from 8 matches) and Holstein Kiel sit 18th (5 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
7FC St. Pauli825111911
18Holstein Kiel80537115

A question about FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?
The Footlab AI model makes FC St. Pauli the favourite at 47%, against 25% for a draw and 28% for Holstein Kiel.
Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel played?
FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel is played on January 30, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: FC St. Pauli and Holstein Kiel

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