Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel played?

FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel is played on January 30, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel: prediction and stats

2. BundesligaRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 30, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC)Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. Pauli

Holstein Kiel

The Footlab model makes FC St. Pauli the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Holstein Kiel. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?

A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate FC St. Pauli (1,962) and Holstein Kiel (1,984).

FC St. Pauli win41 %

Draw26 %

Holstein Kiel win33 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC St. Pauli have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Holstein Kiel have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC St. Pauli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(away)	0-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 14, 2026	Holstein Kiel(away)	2-2	2. Bundesliga
Aug 9, 2026	SpVgg Greuther Fürth(home)	1-1	2. Bundesliga
Aug 1, 2026	Deportivo La Coruna(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 24, 2026	Bournemouth(away)	1-4	Friendlies Clubs

Holstein Kiel
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	TSV 1860 München(away)	2-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 14, 2026	FC St. Pauli(home)	2-2	2. Bundesliga
Aug 8, 2026	SV Darmstadt 98(away)	2-2	2. Bundesliga
Jul 29, 2026	1899 Hoffenheim(away)	1-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	FSV Mainz 05(away)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 FC St. Pauli win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Holstein Kiel win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Aug 14, 2026	Holstein Kiel 2-2 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
Apr 12, 2025	Holstein Kiel 1-2 FC St. Pauli	Bundesliga
Nov 29, 2024	FC St. Pauli 3-1 Holstein Kiel	Bundesliga
Feb 23, 2024	Holstein Kiel 3-4 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga
Sep 17, 2023	FC St. Pauli 5-1 Holstein Kiel	2. Bundesliga
May 19, 2023	Holstein Kiel 3-4 FC St. Pauli	2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli on Aug 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FC St. Pauli score 1.3 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Holstein Kiel score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FC St. Pauli	1.3	2.0	0	12/15	10/15
Holstein Kiel	1.7	1.5	4	10/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC St. Pauli sit 13th in 2. Bundesliga (2 points from 2 matches) and Holstein Kiel sit 12th (2 points from 2 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
12	Holstein Kiel	2	0	2	0	4	4	2
13	FC St. Pauli	2	0	2	0	3	3	2

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel?: The Footlab model makes FC St. Pauli the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Holstein Kiel.
Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel played?: FC St. Pauli vs Holstein Kiel is played on January 30, 2027 at 12:30 PM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.