Match

FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC: prediction and stats

2. BundesligaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC)Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

FC St. PauliKarlsruher SC

The Footlab AI model makes FC St. Pauli the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Karlsruher SC. The most likely score is 1-1. If FC St. Pauli wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?

On Elo ratings, FC St. Pauli has 1,967 points and Karlsruher SC 1,926.

52%24%24%
FC St. Pauli winDrawKarlsruher SC win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FC St. Pauli

4-1-3-2
  1. 19M. Kaars
  2. 24C. Metcalfe
  1. 20M. Rasmussen
  2. 16J. Fujita
  3. 7Y. Niang
  4. 8E. Smith
  1. 4D. Nemeth
  2. 11A. Pyrka
  3. 23L. Oppie
  4. 15T. Ando
  1. 1B. Voll

Karlsruher SC

4-4-2
  1. 13S. Fukuda
  2. 19Louey Ben Farhat
  1. 10M. Wanitzek
  2. 26D. H. Zor
  3. 33V. Bergh
  4. 25L. Egloff
  1. 28M. Franke
  2. 22C. Kobald
  3. 3D. Ofli
  4. 36Rafael Pinto Pedrosa
  1. 1H. Bernat

Computed on October 8, 2026 at 04:21 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC St. Pauli have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Karlsruher SC have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FC St. Pauli
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(home)1-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 20, 2026Energie Cottbus(away)1-12. Bundesliga
Sep 12, 2026VfL Wolfsburg(home)1-02. Bundesliga
Sep 4, 2026Arminia Bielefeld(away)2-22. Bundesliga
Aug 30, 20261. FC Kaiserslautern(home)1-22. Bundesliga
Karlsruher SC
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 2, 2026SV Wehen(away)2-1Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 20261. FC Nürnberg(home)0-12. Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026Energie Cottbus(home)0-32. Bundesliga
Sep 4, 2026Hannover 96(away)2-22. Bundesliga
Aug 29, 2026VfL Wolfsburg(home)2-52. Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FC St. Pauli wins, 2 draws, 1 Karlsruher SC win.

DateScoreCompetition
Jul 20, 2025FC St. Pauli 6-1 Karlsruher SCFriendlies Clubs
Apr 6, 2024Karlsruher SC 2-1 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Oct 28, 2023FC St. Pauli 2-1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
May 28, 2023FC St. Pauli 1-1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga
Nov 12, 2022Karlsruher SC 4-4 FC St. Pauli2. Bundesliga
Mar 5, 2022FC St. Pauli 3-1 Karlsruher SC2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC on Jul 20, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

FC St. Pauli score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Karlsruher SC score 1.4 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FC St. Pauli1.51.7113/1510/15
Karlsruher SC1.42.1111/1513/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FC St. Pauli sit 8th in 2. Bundesliga (7 points from 6 matches) and Karlsruher SC sit 14th (5 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
8FC St. Pauli6141887
14Karlsruher SC61236125

A question about FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC?
The Footlab AI model makes FC St. Pauli the favourite at 52%, against 24% for a draw and 24% for Karlsruher SC.
Where and when is FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC played?
FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC is played on October 11, 2026 at 11:30 AM (UTC) at Millerntor-Stadion, in the 2. Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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