FC Tokyo vs Avispa Fukuoka: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Avispa Fukuoka. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FC Tokyo vs Avispa Fukuoka?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate FC Tokyo (2,003) and Avispa Fukuoka (1,926).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FC Tokyo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Avispa Fukuoka have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(home) | 6-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 0-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 2-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Cerezo Osaka(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 19, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FC Tokyo win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Avispa Fukuoka win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2025 | FC Tokyo 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Jun 30, 2024 | FC Tokyo 0-1 Avispa Fukuoka | J1 League |
| Mar 16, 2024 | Avispa Fukuoka 1-3 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Sep 10, 2023 | Avispa Fukuoka 2-0 FC Tokyo | J-League Cup |
| Sep 6, 2023 | FC Tokyo 1-0 Avispa Fukuoka | J-League Cup |
Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs Avispa Fukuoka on Sep 23, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
FC Tokyo score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Avispa Fukuoka score 1.4 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tokyo | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Avispa Fukuoka | 1.4 | 1.3 | 2 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FC Tokyo sit 11th in J1 League (4 points from 3 matches) and Avispa Fukuoka sit 12th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
| 12 | Avispa Fukuoka | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FC Tokyo vs Avispa Fukuoka?
- The Footlab model makes FC Tokyo the favourite at 49%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Avispa Fukuoka.
- Where and when is FC Tokyo vs Avispa Fukuoka played?
- FC Tokyo vs Avispa Fukuoka is played on April 3, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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