Tokyo Verdy vs Machida Zelvia: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on April 3, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Ajinomoto Stadium, Chōfu
The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Tokyo Verdy. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tokyo Verdy vs Machida Zelvia?
Machida Zelvia starts as the favourite with a 244-point Elo edge (2,116 vs 1,872).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tokyo Verdy have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Machida Zelvia have 9, 5 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(home) | 4-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(away) | 0-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(home) | 1-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 2-4 | J1 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Grulla Morioka(home) | 3-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Urawa(home) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(away) | 4-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Tokyo(away) | 5-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Fujieda MYFC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Tokyo Verdy win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Machida Zelvia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Machida Zelvia 0-0 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Feb 21, 2026 | Tokyo Verdy 2-2 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Jul 20, 2025 | Tokyo Verdy 0-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| Feb 26, 2025 | Machida Zelvia 0-1 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Tokyo Verdy 0-1 Machida Zelvia | J1 League |
| May 19, 2024 | Machida Zelvia 5-0 Tokyo Verdy | J1 League |
Last archived meeting: Machida Zelvia vs Tokyo Verdy on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tokyo Verdy score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Machida Zelvia score 2.0 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokyo Verdy | 1.1 | 1.4 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Machida Zelvia | 2.0 | 0.7 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tokyo Verdy sit 17th in J1 League (2 points from 3 matches) and Machida Zelvia sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 2 | 9 |
| 17 | Tokyo Verdy | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tokyo Verdy vs Machida Zelvia?
- The Footlab model makes Machida Zelvia the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Tokyo Verdy.
- Where and when is Tokyo Verdy vs Machida Zelvia played?
- Tokyo Verdy vs Machida Zelvia is played on April 3, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Ajinomoto Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Apr 3, 2027UrawavsShimizu S-pulse
- Apr 3, 2027Vissel KobevsSanfrecce Hiroshima
- Apr 3, 2027KashimavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Apr 3, 2027FC TokyovsAvispa Fukuoka
- Apr 3, 2027Gamba OsakavsKawasaki Frontale
- Apr 3, 2027Kyoto SangavsV-varen Nagasaki
- Apr 3, 2027Mito HollyhockvsJEF United Chiba