Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 30Kick-off on April 16, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, Hiroshima
The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for FC Tokyo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2,090) and FC Tokyo (2,003).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sanfrecce Hiroshima have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; FC Tokyo have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Okinawa SV(home) | 4-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kawasaki Frontale(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 4-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 3-0 | J1 League |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Verspah Oita(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Parceiro Nagano(home) | 6-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 21, 2026 | JEF United Chiba(home) | 2-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Vissel Kobe(away) | 2-2 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Machida Zelvia(home) | 1-5 | J1 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Sanfrecce Hiroshima win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 FC Tokyo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | FC Tokyo 4-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | Friendlies Clubs |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 0-0 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| May 25, 2025 | FC Tokyo 0-3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J1 League |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-2 FC Tokyo | J1 League |
| Jun 9, 2024 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima 3-1 FC Tokyo | J-League Cup |
| Jun 5, 2024 | FC Tokyo 1-2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima | J-League Cup |
Last archived meeting: FC Tokyo vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima score 2.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; FC Tokyo score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| FC Tokyo | 1.9 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sanfrecce Hiroshima sit 4th in J1 League (7 points from 3 matches) and FC Tokyo sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 7 |
| 11 | FC Tokyo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo?
- The Footlab model makes Sanfrecce Hiroshima the favourite at 47%, against 26% for a draw and 27% for FC Tokyo.
- Where and when is Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo played?
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima vs FC Tokyo is played on April 16, 2027 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Edion Peace Wing Hiroshima, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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