Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş: prediction and stats
Süper LigRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Chobani Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, İstanbul
The Footlab model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Beşiktaş. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Fenerbahçe (2,212) and Beşiktaş (2,133).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fenerbahçe have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Beşiktaş have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gençlerbirliği S.K.(away) | 1-2 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Sturm Graz(home) | 2-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Gornik Zabrze(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Eyüpspor(home) | 1-0 | Süper Lig |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Hradec Králové(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Hradec Králové(away) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(away) | 2-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Jul 23, 2026 | FC Midtjylland(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Fenerbahçe win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Beşiktaş win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 5, 2026 | Fenerbahçe 1-0 Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Fenerbahçe 1-2 Beşiktaş | Türkiye Kupası |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Beşiktaş 2-3 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| May 4, 2025 | Fenerbahçe 0-1 Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
| Dec 7, 2024 | Beşiktaş 1-0 Fenerbahçe | Süper Lig |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Fenerbahçe 2-1 Beşiktaş | Süper Lig |
Last archived meeting: Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş on Apr 5, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fenerbahçe score 1.9 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Beşiktaş score 1.4 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 1.9 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Beşiktaş | 1.4 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fenerbahçe sit 14th in Süper Lig (0 points from 1 matches) and Beşiktaş sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Beşiktaş | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 14 | Fenerbahçe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş?
- The Footlab model makes Fenerbahçe the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 23% for Beşiktaş.
- Where and when is Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş played?
- Fenerbahçe vs Beşiktaş is played on September 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Chobani Stadyumu Fenerbahçe Şükrü Saracoğlu Spor Kompleksi, in the Süper Lig.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.