Match

Flamengo vs Atletico-MG: prediction and stats

Serie ARegular Season - 32Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro

FlamengoAtletico-MG

The Footlab AI model makes Flamengo the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Atletico-MG. The most likely score is 2-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?

Flamengo starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (2,059 vs 1,932).

67%20%13%
Flamengo winDrawAtletico-MG win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Flamengo

4-2-3-1
  1. 9Pedro
  1. 15J. Carrascal
  2. 16Samuel Lino
  3. 5E. Pulgar
  4. 11Lucas Paquetá
  5. 21Jorginho
  1. 4Léo Pereira
  2. 3Léo Ortiz
  3. 26Alex Sandro
  4. 2G. Varela
  1. 1A. Rossi

Known absences

  • G. de ArrascaetaOut · Muscle injury

Atletico-MG

4-2-3-1
  1. 19Reinier
  1. 11Bernard
  2. 28T. Cuello
  3. 8Maycon
  4. 21A. Franco
  5. 15K. Castaño
  1. 2Natanael
  2. 6Renan Lodi
  3. 14Vitor Hugo
  4. 13Lyanco
  1. 1Gabriel Delfim

Computed on October 15, 2026 at 08:25 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Flamengo have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Atletico-MG have 8, 5 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Flamengo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Fluminense(home)1-0Serie A
Oct 8, 2026Santos(away)2-2Serie A
Sep 20, 2026RB Bragantino(home)2-1Serie A
Sep 18, 2026Independiente del Valle(home)1-1CONMEBOL Libertadores
Sep 13, 2026Corinthians(home)2-1Serie A
Atletico-MG
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 14, 2026Atletico Torque(home)3-0CONMEBOL Sudamericana
Oct 11, 2026Santos(home)2-1Serie A
Oct 8, 2026Atletico Paranaense(away)2-2Serie A
Oct 3, 2026RB Bragantino(home)1-0Serie A
Sep 19, 2026Chapecoense-sc(home)1-1Serie A

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Flamengo wins, 2 draws, 1 Atletico-MG win.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 26, 2026Atletico-MG 0-4 FlamengoSerie A
Nov 26, 2025Atletico-MG 1-1 FlamengoSerie A
Aug 6, 2025Atletico-MG 0-1 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
Aug 1, 2025Flamengo 0-1 Atletico-MGCopa Do Brasil
Jul 27, 2025Flamengo 1-0 Atletico-MGSerie A
Nov 13, 2024Flamengo 0-0 Atletico-MGSerie A

Last archived meeting: Atletico-MG vs Flamengo on Apr 26, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Flamengo score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico-MG score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Flamengo1.90.769/157/15
Atletico-MG1.71.149/159/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Flamengo sit 1st in Serie A (64 points from 30 matches) and Atletico-MG sit 7th (47 points from 30 matches).

2026 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Flamengo301974582564
7Atletico-MG301389413547

A question about Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Flamengo vs Atletico-MG?
The Footlab AI model makes Flamengo the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 13% for Atletico-MG.
Where and when is Flamengo vs Atletico-MG played?
Flamengo vs Atletico-MG is played on October 25, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho (Maracanã), in the Serie A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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