Folgore vs Murata: prediction and stats
CampionatoRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 28, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC)Campo Sportivo di Falciano, Falciano
The Footlab model makes Folgore the favourite at 85%, against 10% for a draw and 5% for Murata. The most likely score is 3-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Folgore vs Murata?
Folgore is a heavy favourite: 1,259 Elo points against 912 — a 348-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Folgore have 8 wins, 6 draws and 1 defeats; Murata have 0, 0 and 15.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 2026 | Domagnano(home) | 1-3 | Campionato |
| May 2, 2026 | Domagnano(away) | 1-0 | Campionato |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Domagnano(away) | 7-3 | Campionato |
| Apr 19, 2026 | San Marino Academy(home) | 3-0 | Campionato |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Juvenes / Dogana(away) | 2-2 | Campionato |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Juvenes / Dogana(away) | 2-5 | Campionato |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Fiorentino(home) | 1-4 | Campionato |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Virtus(away) | 1-4 | Campionato |
| Apr 8, 2026 | Tre Fiori(home) | 0-3 | Campionato |
| Mar 21, 2026 | Pennarossa(away) | 0-2 | Campionato |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Folgore win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Murata win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Folgore 3-2 Murata | Campionato |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Murata 0-2 Folgore | Campionato |
| Mar 8, 2025 | Murata 0-1 Folgore | Campionato |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Folgore 1-0 Murata | Campionato |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Murata 0-0 Folgore | Coppa Titano |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Folgore 1-0 Murata | Coppa Titano |
How many goals should we expect?
Folgore score 2.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Murata score 0.7 and concede 3.4. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Folgore | 2.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Murata | 0.7 | 3.4 | 0 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Folgore sit 5th in Campionato (57 points from 30 matches) and Murata sit 16th (-2 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Folgore | 30 | 16 | 9 | 6 | 67 | 33 | 57 |
| 16 | Murata | 30 | 1 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 83 | -2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Folgore vs Murata?
- The Footlab model makes Folgore the favourite at 85%, against 10% for a draw and 5% for Murata.
- Where and when is Folgore vs Murata played?
- Folgore vs Murata is played on August 28, 2026 at 07:15 PM (UTC) at Campo Sportivo di Falciano, in the Campionato.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.