Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa: prediction and stats
CampionatoRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini, Fiorentino
The Footlab model makes Tre Fiori the favourite at 80%, against 14% for a draw and 6% for Pennarossa. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa?
Tre Fiori is a heavy favourite: 1,393 Elo points against 959 — a 434-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Tre Fiori have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Pennarossa have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2026 | Drita(away) | 0-5 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Drita(home) | 1-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Forli(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2026 | Larne(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Larne(home) | 0-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 29, 2026 | Cosmos(away) | 0-3 | Campionato |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Tre Fiori(away) | 1-1 | Campionato |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Juvenes / Dogana(home) | 0-0 | Campionato |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Cosmos(away) | 1-0 | Campionato |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Cailungo(away) | 2-1 | Campionato |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Tre Fiori win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Pennarossa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Tre Fiori 1-1 Pennarossa | Campionato |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Pennarossa 0-0 Tre Fiori | Campionato |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Tre Fiori 3-0 Pennarossa | Coppa Titano |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Pennarossa 1-1 Tre Fiori | Coppa Titano |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Tre Fiori 3-0 Pennarossa | Campionato |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Pennarossa 1-6 Tre Fiori | Campionato |
Last archived meeting: Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Tre Fiori score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Pennarossa score 0.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tre Fiori | 1.3 | 1.5 | 6 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Pennarossa | 0.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Tre Fiori sit 1st in Campionato (73 points from 30 matches) and Pennarossa sit 11th (32 points from 30 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tre Fiori | 30 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 63 | 13 | 73 |
| 11 | Pennarossa | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | 29 | 53 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa?
- The Footlab model makes Tre Fiori the favourite at 80%, against 14% for a draw and 6% for Pennarossa.
- Where and when is Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa played?
- Tre Fiori vs Pennarossa is played on August 30, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Sportivo di Fiorentino Federico Crescentini, in the Campionato.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.