Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 10Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 11:15 AM (UTC)Fortuna Sittard Stadion, Sittard
The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Fortuna Sittard. The most likely score is 1-1. If Excelsior wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Fortuna Sittard (1,906) and Excelsior (1,948).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Fortuna Sittard
5-3-2- 9A. Descotte
- 10O. Romeny
- 52M. Ihattaren
- 20É. Michut
- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand
- 23P. Brittijn
- 12Ivo Pinto
- 8J. Dahlhaus
- 3Rodrigo Guth
- 28Justin Quincy Hubner
- 31M. Branderhorst
Excelsior
4-3-3- 30Á. Þorsteinsson
- 7A. Sliti
- 21I. Silva Timas
- 3R. Meissen
- 20L. Hartjes
- 8I. Yegoian
- 14J. Plug
- 4C. Widell
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
- 15S. Janssen
- 1S. van Gassel
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fortuna Sittard have 9 wins, 1 draw and 5 defeats; Excelsior have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 3, 2026 | Genk(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Ajax(home) | 1-5 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(away) | 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 28, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Utrecht(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 8, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 3-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 2-1 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Fortuna Sittard wins, 1 draw, 2 Excelsior wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 20, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard 2-1 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Excelsior 1-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Mar 3, 2024 | Fortuna Sittard 5-2 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Excelsior 2-2 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| May 21, 2023 | Excelsior 3-0 Fortuna Sittard | Eredivisie |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Fortuna Sittard 1-0 Excelsior | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior on Feb 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fortuna Sittard score 1.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Excelsior score 2.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 1.7 | 1.8 | 2 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
| Excelsior | 2.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fortuna Sittard sit 6th in Eredivisie (13 points from 7 matches) and Excelsior sit 7th (11 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Fortuna Sittard | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| 7 | Excelsior | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 9 | 11 |
A question about Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
- The Footlab AI model makes Excelsior the favourite at 42%, against 24% for a draw and 34% for Fortuna Sittard.
- Where and when is Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior played?
- Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior is played on October 25, 2026 at 11:15 AM (UTC) at Fortuna Sittard Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.