Fratria II vs Ustrem Donchevo: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Staro Oryahovo, Staro Oryahovo
The Footlab model makes Ustrem Donchevo the favourite at 56%, against 19% for a draw and 25% for Fratria II. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Fratria II vs Ustrem Donchevo?
Ustrem Donchevo starts as the favourite with a 163-point Elo edge (1,441 vs 1,279).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Fratria II have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Ustrem Donchevo have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(home) | 3-6 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Volov Shumen(home) | 0-7 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Aksakovo(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Botev Novi Pazar(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa 14(away) | 0-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Olympic Varna(home) | 3-4 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Riltzi(away) | 4-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 23, 2026 | Benkovski Isperih(home) | 3-2 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Chernolomets 1919(away) | 0-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Svetkavitsa Targovishte(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Fratria II win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Ustrem Donchevo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo 5-0 Fratria II | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Fratria II 2-4 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 26, 2025 | Fratria II 1-3 Ustrem Donchevo | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Ustrem Donchevo 1-0 Fratria II | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Ustrem Donchevo vs Fratria II on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Fratria II score 1.5 and concede 2.7 goals per match over their last 15; Ustrem Donchevo score 1.9 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 80% probability of over 2.5 goals and 76% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fratria II | 1.5 | 2.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Ustrem Donchevo | 1.9 | 2.1 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Fratria II sit 15th in Third League - Northeast (0 points from 1 matches) and Ustrem Donchevo sit 11th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Ustrem Donchevo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| 15 | Fratria II | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Fratria II vs Ustrem Donchevo?
- The Footlab model makes Ustrem Donchevo the favourite at 56%, against 19% for a draw and 25% for Fratria II.
- Where and when is Fratria II vs Ustrem Donchevo played?
- Fratria II vs Ustrem Donchevo is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Staro Oryahovo, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 80% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.