Septemvri Tervel vs Chernolomets 1919: prediction and stats
Third League - NortheastNortheast - 10Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Gradski stadion, Tervel
The Footlab model makes Septemvri Tervel the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Chernolomets 1919. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Septemvri Tervel vs Chernolomets 1919?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Septemvri Tervel (1,720) and Chernolomets 1919 (1,629).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Septemvri Tervel have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Chernolomets 1919 have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Volov Shumen(home) | 1-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Spartak Varna II(home) | 4-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 20, 2026 | Ludogorets III(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 17, 2026 | Cherno more II(away) | 2-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-1 | Third League - Northeast |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Chernomorets Balchik(home) | 0-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 30, 2026 | Dorostol(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 24, 2026 | Ludogorets III(away) | 1-3 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 16, 2026 | Ustrem Donchevo(home) | 3-0 | Third League - Northeast |
| May 13, 2026 | Volov Shumen(away) | 0-5 | Third League - Northeast |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Septemvri Tervel win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Chernolomets 1919 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Septemvri Tervel 0-4 Chernolomets 1919 | Third League - Northeast |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Chernolomets 1919 3-0 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Chernolomets 1919 1-1 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 6, 2024 | Septemvri Tervel 3-1 Chernolomets 1919 | Third League - Northeast |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Septemvri Tervel 3-1 Chernolomets 1919 | Third League - Northeast |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Chernolomets 1919 0-1 Septemvri Tervel | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Septemvri Tervel vs Chernolomets 1919 on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Septemvri Tervel score 2.4 and concede 0.5 goals per match over their last 15; Chernolomets 1919 score 2.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Septemvri Tervel | 2.4 | 0.5 | 10 | 2/15 | 8/15 |
| Chernolomets 1919 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Septemvri Tervel sit 7th in Third League - Northeast (1 points from 1 matches) and Chernolomets 1919 sit 9th (1 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Septemvri Tervel | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 9 | Chernolomets 1919 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Septemvri Tervel vs Chernolomets 1919?
- The Footlab model makes Septemvri Tervel the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Chernolomets 1919.
- Where and when is Septemvri Tervel vs Chernolomets 1919 played?
- Septemvri Tervel vs Chernolomets 1919 is played on October 17, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski stadion, in the Third League - Northeast.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.