Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 played?

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05

SC Paderborn 07

The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for SC Paderborn 07. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?

A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate FSV Mainz 05 (2,141) and SC Paderborn 07 (2,068).

FSV Mainz 05 win50 %

Draw23 %

SC Paderborn 07 win26 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; SC Paderborn 07 have 7, 6 and 2.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Bournemouth(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Paris FC(home)	4-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Udinese(away)	3-3	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 31, 2026	Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Holstein Kiel(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

SC Paderborn 07
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Werder Bremen(away)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	VfL Osnabrück(away)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
May 25, 2026	VfL Wolfsburg(home)	2-1	Bundesliga
May 21, 2026	VfL Wolfsburg(away)	0-0	Bundesliga
May 17, 2026	SV Darmstadt 98(away)	2-0	2. Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 3 FSV Mainz 05 win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 SC Paderborn 07 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 29, 2020	FSV Mainz 05 2-0 SC Paderborn 07	Bundesliga
Oct 5, 2019	SC Paderborn 07 1-2 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga
Jan 31, 2015	FSV Mainz 05 5-0 SC Paderborn 07	Bundesliga
Aug 24, 2014	SC Paderborn 07 2-2 FSV Mainz 05	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 on Feb 29, 2020

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 2.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; SC Paderborn 07 score 1.8 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 05	2.5	1.3	6	7/15	10/15
SC Paderborn 07	1.8	1.5	4	11/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
10	FSV Mainz 05	34	10	10	14	44	53	40

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07?: The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 26% for SC Paderborn 07.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 played?: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Paderborn 07 is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.