Where and when is Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV played?

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 1Kick-off on August 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, Dortmund

Borussia Dortmund

Hamburger SV

The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 11% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?

Borussia Dortmund starts as the favourite with a 241-point Elo edge (2,293 vs 2,052).

Borussia Dortmund win73 %

Draw16 %

Hamburger SV win11 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Borussia Dortmund have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Hamburger SV have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Borussia Dortmund
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	AS Roma(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Arsenal(away)	3-2	Emirates Cup
Aug 1, 2026	FC Tokyo(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Cerezo Osaka(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Fortuna Düsseldorf(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
May 16, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen(away)	1-1	Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Borussia Dortmund win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Hamburger SV win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 21, 2026	Borussia Dortmund 3-2 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Nov 8, 2025	Hamburger SV 1-1 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Feb 10, 2018	Borussia Dortmund 2-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Sep 20, 2017	Hamburger SV 0-3 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga
Apr 4, 2017	Borussia Dortmund 3-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Nov 5, 2016	Hamburger SV 2-5 Borussia Dortmund	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV on Mar 21, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Borussia Dortmund score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Hamburger SV score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 72% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Borussia Dortmund	1.8	1.1	5	7/15	8/15
Hamburger SV	1.4	1.9	0	13/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Borussia Dortmund sit 2nd in Bundesliga (73 points from 34 matches) and Hamburger SV sit 13th (38 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
2	Borussia Dortmund	34	22	7	5	70	34	73
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV?: The Footlab model makes Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 73%, against 16% for a draw and 11% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV played?: Borussia Dortmund vs Hamburger SV is played on August 29, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at SIGNAL IDUNA PARK, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 72% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.