FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 34Kick-off on May 22, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz
The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for VfB Stuttgart. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate FSV Mainz 05 (2,158) and VfB Stuttgart (2,252).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; VfB Stuttgart have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Krieschow(away) | 9-0 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Hansa Rostock(away) | 4-0 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fulham(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Everton(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Kickers Offenbach(away) | 8-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FSV Mainz 05 win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 VfB Stuttgart win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 7, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 2-2 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| Oct 29, 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 0-2 VfB Stuttgart | DFB Pokal |
| Oct 26, 2025 | VfB Stuttgart 2-1 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Jan 25, 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 2-0 VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga |
| Aug 31, 2024 | VfB Stuttgart 3-3 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Feb 11, 2024 | VfB Stuttgart 3-1 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart on Mar 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; VfB Stuttgart score 3.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| VfB Stuttgart | 3.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th in Bundesliga (40 points from 34 matches) and VfB Stuttgart sit 4th (62 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | VfB Stuttgart | 34 | 18 | 8 | 8 | 71 | 49 | 62 |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44 | 53 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart?
- The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 36% for VfB Stuttgart.
- Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart played?
- FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart is played on May 22, 2027 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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