Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05Werder Bremen

The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Werder Bremen. The most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

On Elo ratings, FSV Mainz 05 has 2,163 points and Werder Bremen 2,064.

61%20%19%
FSV Mainz 05 winDrawWerder Bremen win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 23S. Becker
  2. 9P. Tietz
  1. 10N. Amiri
  2. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  3. 19A. Caci
  4. 6K. Sano
  5. 2P. Mwene
  1. 3F. Gruber
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 4S. Posch
  1. 1A. Schwolow

Werder Bremen

3-4-3
  1. 10N. Füllkrug
  2. 20Chuky San José
  3. 18E. Dinkçi
  1. 15L. Reis
  2. 17M. Grüll
  3. 44Y. Regeer
  4. 13Arthur
  1. 2O. Deman
  2. 32M. Friedl
  3. 5A. Pieper
  1. 1K. Hein

Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:54 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Werder Bremen have 7, 3 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 3, 2026Waldhof Mannheim(away)3-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 2026Borussia Mönchengladbach(away)4-3Bundesliga
Sep 12, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)1-3Bundesliga
Sep 6, 2026Hamburger SV(away)5-0Bundesliga
Aug 29, 2026SC Paderborn 07(home)0-0Bundesliga
Werder Bremen
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Sep 19, 2026FC Augsburg(home)3-2Bundesliga
Sep 12, 20261. FC Köln(away)1-1Bundesliga
Sep 5, 2026RB Leipzig(home)3-1Bundesliga
Aug 30, 2026SC Freiburg(away)1-4Bundesliga
Aug 22, 2026Lüneburger SK Hansa(away)3-0DFB Pokal

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FSV Mainz 05 win, 1 draw, 4 Werder Bremen wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Mar 15, 2026Werder Bremen 0-2 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Nov 1, 2025FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
Jan 31, 2025Werder Bremen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Sep 15, 2024FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Werder BremenBundesliga
Feb 3, 2024FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Werder BremenBundesliga
Sep 2, 2023Werder Bremen 4-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 on Mar 15, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 3.5 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Werder Bremen score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 053.50.996/1512/15
Werder Bremen1.91.539/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 6th in Bundesliga (7 points from 4 matches) and Werder Bremen sit 8th (7 points from 4 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
6FSV Mainz 0542111067
8Werder Bremen4211887

A question about FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 61%, against 20% for a draw and 19% for Werder Bremen.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen played?
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen

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