FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 7Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz
The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for Werder Bremen. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
FSV Mainz 05 starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (2,142 vs 2,033).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Werder Bremen have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Krieschow(away) | 9-0 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lüneburger SK Hansa(away) | 3-0 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Auxerre(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | SC Paderborn 07(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Energie Cottbus(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | VfL Bochum(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 FSV Mainz 05 win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Werder Bremen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Werder Bremen 0-2 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 1-1 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| Jan 31, 2025 | Werder Bremen 1-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Sep 15, 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| Feb 3, 2024 | FSV Mainz 05 0-1 Werder Bremen | Bundesliga |
| Sep 2, 2023 | Werder Bremen 4-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: Werder Bremen vs FSV Mainz 05 on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Werder Bremen score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| Werder Bremen | 1.8 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th in Bundesliga (40 points from 34 matches) and Werder Bremen sit 15th (32 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44 | 53 | 40 |
| 15 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 37 | 60 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
- The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for Werder Bremen.
- Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen played?
- FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen is played on October 24, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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