Gainare Tottori vs Omiya Ardija: prediction and stats
J-League CupRound of 128Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Axis Bird Stadium, Tottori
The Footlab model makes Omiya Ardija the favourite at 65%, against 18% for a draw and 17% for Gainare Tottori. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gainare Tottori vs Omiya Ardija?
Omiya Ardija starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (1,845 vs 1,694).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gainare Tottori have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Omiya Ardija have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Nagoya Grampus(away) | 3-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fukushima United(home) | 2-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Roasso Kumamoto(home) | 2-2 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Ehime FC(away) | 0-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Osaka(home) | 1-1 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Vanraure Hachinohe(home) | 2-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Consadole Sapporo(away) | 4-1 | J2 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Imabari(away) | 3-2 | J2 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Albirex Niigata(home) | 1-0 | J2 League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Urawa(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Gainare Tottori win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Omiya Ardija win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2024 | Omiya Ardija 5-4 Gainare Tottori | J3 League |
| May 3, 2024 | Gainare Tottori 0-3 Omiya Ardija | J3 League |
| Sep 7, 2016 | Omiya Ardija 1-0 Gainare Tottori | Emperor Cup |
Last archived meeting: Omiya Ardija vs Gainare Tottori on Nov 2, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Gainare Tottori score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Omiya Ardija score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainare Tottori | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Omiya Ardija | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gainare Tottori vs Omiya Ardija?
- The Footlab model makes Omiya Ardija the favourite at 65%, against 18% for a draw and 17% for Gainare Tottori.
- Where and when is Gainare Tottori vs Omiya Ardija played?
- Gainare Tottori vs Omiya Ardija is played on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Axis Bird Stadium, in the J-League Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 2, 2026SagamiharavsJubilo Iwata
- Sep 2, 2026Vanraure HachinohevsTochigi City
- Sep 2, 2026Renofa YamaguchivsFujieda MYFC
- Sep 2, 2026Ehime FCvsBlaublitz Akita
- Sep 2, 2026Thespakusatsu GunmavsAlbirex Niigata
- Sep 2, 2026KitakyushuvsIwaki
- Sep 2, 2026FC RyukyuvsYokohama FC
- Sep 2, 2026Roasso KumamotovsOita Trinita