Match

Gainare Tottori vs Omiya Ardija: prediction and stats

J-League CupRound of 128Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Axis Bird Stadium, Tottori

Gainare TottoriOmiya Ardija

The Footlab model makes Omiya Ardija the favourite at 65%, against 18% for a draw and 17% for Gainare Tottori. The most likely score is 1-2.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Gainare Tottori vs Omiya Ardija?

Omiya Ardija starts as the favourite with a 150-point Elo edge (1,845 vs 1,694).

Gainare Tottori win17 %
Draw18 %
Omiya Ardija win65 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gainare Tottori have 7 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats; Omiya Ardija have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Gainare Tottori
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 26, 2026Nagoya Grampus(away)3-1Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026Fukushima United(home)2-1J3 League
Aug 19, 2026Roasso Kumamoto(home)2-2Emperor Cup
Aug 16, 2026Ehime FC(away)0-4J3 League
Aug 8, 2026Osaka(home)1-1J3 League
Omiya Ardija
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Aug 26, 2026Vanraure Hachinohe(home)2-0Emperor Cup
Aug 22, 2026Consadole Sapporo(away)4-1J2 League
Aug 15, 2026Imabari(away)3-2J2 League
Aug 8, 2026Albirex Niigata(home)1-0J2 League
Aug 1, 2026Urawa(away)2-2Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Gainare Tottori win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Omiya Ardija win(s).

DateScoreCompetition
Nov 2, 2024Omiya Ardija 5-4 Gainare TottoriJ3 League
May 3, 2024Gainare Tottori 0-3 Omiya ArdijaJ3 League
Sep 7, 2016Omiya Ardija 1-0 Gainare TottoriEmperor Cup

Last archived meeting: Omiya Ardija vs Gainare Tottori on Nov 2, 2024

How many goals should we expect?

Gainare Tottori score 1.7 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Omiya Ardija score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Gainare Tottori1.71.5111/1510/15
Omiya Ardija1.91.5312/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Gainare Tottori vs Omiya Ardija?
The Footlab model makes Omiya Ardija the favourite at 65%, against 18% for a draw and 17% for Gainare Tottori.
Where and when is Gainare Tottori vs Omiya Ardija played?
Gainare Tottori vs Omiya Ardija is played on September 2, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Axis Bird Stadium, in the J-League Cup.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab model gives a 76% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Gainare Tottori and Omiya Ardija

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