Gateshead vs Barrow: prediction and stats
National LeagueRegular Season - 17Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gateshead International Stadium, Gateshead, Tyne and Wear
The Footlab model makes Gateshead the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Barrow. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gateshead vs Barrow?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Gateshead (1,704) and Barrow (1,625).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gateshead have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Barrow have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Yeovil Town(away) | 0-3 | National League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Nottingham Forest U21(home) | 1-1 | National League Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Woking(home) | 2-0 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Eastleigh(away) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Spennymoor Town(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Harrogate Town(away) | 2-2 | National League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | AFC Hornchurch(home) | 1-2 | National League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 0-2 | National League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Morecambe(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gateshead win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Barrow win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 27, 2019 | Gateshead 0-2 Barrow | National League |
| Sep 25, 2018 | Barrow 1-2 Gateshead | National League |
| Feb 20, 2018 | Barrow 1-1 Gateshead | National League |
| Nov 21, 2017 | Gateshead 1-2 Barrow | National League |
| Dec 31, 2016 | Gateshead 4-1 Barrow | National League |
| Dec 26, 2016 | Barrow 0-0 Gateshead | National League |
How many goals should we expect?
Gateshead score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Barrow score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gateshead | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Barrow | 1.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gateshead sit 17th in National League (3 points from 3 matches) and Barrow sit 20th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | Gateshead | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| 20 | Barrow | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gateshead vs Barrow?
- The Footlab model makes Gateshead the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Barrow.
- Where and when is Gateshead vs Barrow played?
- Gateshead vs Barrow is played on November 14, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gateshead International Stadium, in the National League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.