Ghana vs Gambia: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 2Kick-off on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Accra Sports Stadium, Accra
The Footlab model makes Ghana the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Gambia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ghana vs Gambia?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Ghana (1,579) and Gambia (1,519).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ghana have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Gambia have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Croatia(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | England(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Panama(home) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Wales(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| May 23, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Iran(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Kuwait(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Seychelles(away) | 7-0 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Gabon(home) | 3-4 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Ghana score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Gambia score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghana | 1.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Gambia | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ghana sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (3 points from 6 matches) and Gambia sit 3rd (8 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gambia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
| 4 | Ghana | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ghana vs Gambia?
- The Footlab model makes Ghana the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Gambia.
- Where and when is Ghana vs Gambia played?
- Ghana vs Gambia is played on September 27, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Accra Sports Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.