Ghana vs Somalia: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Accra Sports Stadium, Accra
The Footlab model makes Ghana the favourite at 63%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Somalia. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ghana vs Somalia?
Ghana starts as the favourite with a 298-point Elo edge (1,579 vs 1,281).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ghana have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Somalia have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | Croatia(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 23, 2026 | England(away) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 17, 2026 | Panama(home) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Wales(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| May 23, 2026 | Mexico(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Mauritius(away) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Mauritius(home) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Oman(away) | 0-0 | Arab Cup |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Bahrain(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Bahrain(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Ghana score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Somalia score 0.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ghana | 1.2 | 1.2 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Somalia | 0.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Ghana | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ghana vs Somalia?
- The Footlab model makes Ghana the favourite at 63%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Somalia.
- Where and when is Ghana vs Somalia played?
- Ghana vs Somalia is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Accra Sports Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.