Senegal vs Sudan: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade, Diamniadio
The Footlab AI model makes Senegal the favourite at 77%, against 17% for a draw and 6% for Sudan. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,751 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Senegal vs Sudan?
Senegal starts as the favourite with a 282-point Elo edge (1,750 vs 1,467).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Senegal vs Sudan
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Senegal
4-2-3-1- 20I. Mbaye
- 26P. Gueye
- 8L. Camara
- 17P. Sarr
- 7Assane Diao
- 5I. Gueye
- 19M. Niakhaté
- 25E. Diouf
- 3K. Koulibaly
- 2M. Sarr
- 1Y. Diouf
Known absences
É. MendyOut · Knee injury
Sudan
4-4-2- 20M. Eisa
- 26Aamir Abdallah
- 10Aamir Yunis Abdallah
- 25S. Barglan
- 13A. Taifour
- 10Mohamed Abdelrahman
- 6Mustafa Karshoum
- 3Mohamed Erneq
- 12Bakhit Khamis
- 25Sheddy Barglan
- 21M. Elneel
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:14 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Senegal have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Sudan have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Comoros(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Ethiopia(away) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Mozambique(away) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jul 1, 2026 | Belgium(away) | 2-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 26, 2026 | Iraq(home) | 5-0 | World Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Mozambique(away) | 1-4 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Ethiopia(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Burkina Faso(home) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Equatorial Guinea(away) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Senegal wins, 3 draws, 0 Sudan wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 3, 2026 | Senegal 3-1 Sudan | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Senegal 2-0 Sudan | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Aug 29, 2025 | Sudan 1-1 Senegal | African Nations Championship |
| Aug 19, 2025 | Sudan 0-0 Senegal | African Nations Championship |
| Mar 22, 2025 | Sudan 0-0 Senegal | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 16, 2018 | Sudan 0-1 Senegal | Africa Cup of Nations |
How many goals should we expect?
Senegal score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Sudan score 0.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Senegal | 1.7 | 1.2 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Sudan | 0.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Senegal sit 1st in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 2 matches) and Sudan sit 3rd (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Senegal | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Sudan | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
A question about Senegal vs Sudan?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Senegal vs Sudan?
- The Footlab AI model makes Senegal the favourite at 77%, against 17% for a draw and 6% for Sudan.
- Where and when is Senegal vs Sudan played?
- Senegal vs Sudan is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Me Abdoulaye Wade, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.