Somalia vs Gambia: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Muqdisho Stadium, Mogadishu
The Footlab model makes Gambia the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Somalia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Somalia vs Gambia?
Gambia starts as the favourite with a 238-point Elo edge (1,519 vs 1,281).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Somalia have 2 wins, 5 draws and 8 defeats; Gambia have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Mauritius(away) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Mauritius(home) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Oman(away) | 0-0 | Arab Cup |
| Nov 21, 2025 | Bahrain(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Bahrain(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 29, 2026 | Iran(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Kuwait(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Seychelles(away) | 7-0 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Gabon(home) | 3-4 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Somalia score 0.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Gambia score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somalia | 0.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Gambia | 1.7 | 1.5 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Gambia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Somalia vs Gambia?
- The Footlab model makes Gambia the favourite at 43%, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Somalia.
- Where and when is Somalia vs Gambia played?
- Somalia vs Gambia is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Muqdisho Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.