Somalia vs Gambia: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Muqdisho Stadium, Mogadishu
The Footlab AI model makes Gambia the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for Somalia. The most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Somalia vs Gambia?
Gambia starts as the favourite with a 267-point Elo edge (1,542 vs 1,275).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Somalia vs Gambia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Somalia
4-3-3- 9B. Njie
- 10M. Suleiman
- 11A. Sabriye
- 14A. Sharif
- 8Abdulsamed Ahmed Abdullahi
- 10A. Musse
- 15A. Omar
- 19Faysal Omar
- 2M. Mohamed
- 3A. Gigli
- 1S. Dhadho
Gambia
5-4-1- 10M. Badamosi
- 25A. Barry
- 8E. Adams
- 11A. Sanyang
- 9Suleiman Camara
- 5O. Colley
- 6Y. Bojang
- 4A. Saine
- 15J. Ceesay
- 13I. Touray
- 18B. Gaye
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 12:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Somalia have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Gambia have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Ivory Coast(home) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Gambia(away) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Mauritius(away) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Mauritius(home) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Oman(away) | 0-0 | Arab Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Ghana(away) | 4-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Somalia(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| May 29, 2026 | Iran(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Senegal(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Kuwait(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Somalia wins, 0 draws, 1 Gambia win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Gambia 2-1 Somalia | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Somalia score 0.4 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Gambia score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Somalia | 0.4 | 1.4 | 5 | 4/15 | 6/15 |
| Gambia | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Somalia sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (0 points from 2 matches) and Gambia sit 2nd (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Gambia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 3 | Somalia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
A question about Somalia vs Gambia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Somalia vs Gambia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Gambia the favourite at 55%, against 27% for a draw and 18% for Somalia.
- Where and when is Somalia vs Gambia played?
- Somalia vs Gambia is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Muqdisho Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.