Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Nuevo Estadio de Malabo, Malabo
The Footlab model makes Equatorial Guinea the favourite at 40%, against 32% for a draw and 28% for Zimbabwe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Equatorial Guinea (1,498) and Zimbabwe (1,457).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Equatorial Guinea have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Zimbabwe have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Comoros(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Madagascar(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Dec 31, 2025 | Algeria(home) | 1-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Dec 28, 2025 | Sudan(home) | 0-1 | Africa Cup of Nations |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | India(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| May 26, 2026 | Nigeria(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Zambia U23(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Botswana(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Dec 29, 2025 | South Africa(home) | 2-3 | Africa Cup of Nations |
How many goals should we expect?
Equatorial Guinea score 0.9 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Zimbabwe score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equatorial Guinea | 0.9 | 1.2 | 3 | 8/15 | 4/15 |
| Zimbabwe | 1.1 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Equatorial Guinea sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (8 points from 6 matches) and Zimbabwe sit 2nd (9 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Equatorial Guinea | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 8 |
| 2 | Zimbabwe | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe?
- The Footlab model makes Equatorial Guinea the favourite at 40%, against 32% for a draw and 28% for Zimbabwe.
- Where and when is Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe played?
- Equatorial Guinea vs Zimbabwe is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Nuevo Estadio de Malabo, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.