Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)National Sports Complex Pitch 1, Saint Pierre
The Footlab AI model makes Madagascar the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Guinea-Bissau. The most likely score is 1-1. If Madagascar wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Madagascar (1,501) and Guinea-Bissau (1,457).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Madagascar
4-2-3-1- 9W. Caddy
- 7R. Raveloson
- 6M. Ilaimaharitra
- 10El Hadari
- 17L. Lapoussin
- 13N. Fontaine
- 15E. Kari
- 5S. Trémoulet
- 3M. Jean-Pierre
- 22M. Acapandié
- 1G. Dupire
Guinea-Bissau
4-3-3- 9Beto
- 17Mama Baldé
- 10Franculino Djú
- 19Renato Nhaga
- 7Dálcio
- 11R. Vieira
- 22Opa Sanganté
- 15Jefferson Encada
- 2Víctor Rofino
- 3Adramane Cassamá
- 1Manuel Baldé
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 02:59 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Madagascar have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Guinea-Bissau have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Tanzania(home) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Nigeria(away) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Equatorial Guinea(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Nigeria(home) | 3-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Tanzania(away) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Burkina Faso(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Burkina Faso(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Egypt(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Madagascar score 1.7 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Guinea-Bissau score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madagascar | 1.7 | 1.4 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Madagascar sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (1 point from 2 matches) and Guinea-Bissau sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guinea-Bissau | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 6 |
| 4 | Madagascar | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
A question about Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
- The Footlab AI model makes Madagascar the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 26% for Guinea-Bissau.
- Where and when is Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau played?
- Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at National Sports Complex Pitch 1, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.