Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)National Sports Complex Pitch 1, Saint Pierre
The Footlab model makes Madagascar the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Guinea-Bissau. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
A very open match: only 99 Elo points separate Madagascar (1,507) and Guinea-Bissau (1,408).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Madagascar have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Guinea-Bissau have 1, 4 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2, 2026 | Morocco(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Equatorial Guinea(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Kyrgyzstan(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Equatorial Guinea(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Mali(away) | 1-4 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Burkina Faso(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Burkina Faso(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Egypt(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Ethiopia(away) | 0-1 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Djibouti(home) | 2-0 | World Cup - Qualification Africa |
How many goals should we expect?
Madagascar score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Guinea-Bissau score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Madagascar | 1.7 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Guinea-Bissau | 0.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Madagascar sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (2 points from 6 matches) and Guinea-Bissau sit 3rd (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Guinea-Bissau | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 5 |
| 4 | Madagascar | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau?
- The Footlab model makes Madagascar the favourite at 51%, against 28% for a draw and 20% for Guinea-Bissau.
- Where and when is Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau played?
- Madagascar vs Guinea-Bissau is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at National Sports Complex Pitch 1, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.