Guinea vs Eritrea: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 3Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny, Abidjan
The Footlab AI model makes Guinea the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Eritrea. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guinea vs Eritrea?
Guinea starts as the favourite with a 108-point Elo edge (1,550 vs 1,442).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Guinea vs Eritrea
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Guinea
4-2-3-1- 9S. Guirassy
- 15S. Cissé
- 8A. Traoré
- 10A. Balde
- 11Y. Diaby
- 19Ousmane Diabate
- 6I. Fofana
- 21S. Sylla
- 3A. Keita
- 5Mohamed Soumah
- 22M. Camara
Eritrea
5-4-1- 10A. Sulieman
- 20N. Girmai Netabay
- 9T. Tekie
- 7F. Gerezgiher
- AA. Okray
- 14Namrud Embaye
- 16Hennos Asmelash
- 25V. Fors
- 4J. Ali
- YY. Solomon
- KK. Solomun
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guinea have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Eritrea have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 1, 2026 | Kenya(home) | 1-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 26, 2026 | South Africa(away) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Northern Ireland(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Benin(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Togo(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 30, 2026 | South Africa(home) | 0-5 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Kenya(away) | 1-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Eswatini(away) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 25, 2026 | Eswatini(home) | 2-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| May 28, 2025 | Niger(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Guinea score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Eritrea score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guinea | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Eritrea | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guinea sit 2nd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (3 points from 2 matches) and Eritrea sit 3rd (1 point from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Guinea | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Eritrea | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
A question about Guinea vs Eritrea?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guinea vs Eritrea?
- The Footlab AI model makes Guinea the favourite at 60%, against 25% for a draw and 15% for Eritrea.
- Where and when is Guinea vs Eritrea played?
- Guinea vs Eritrea is played on November 11, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Félix Houphouët-Boigny, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.