GIL Vicente vs FC Porto: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos
The Footlab model makes FC Porto the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for GIL Vicente. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GIL Vicente vs FC Porto?
FC Porto is a heavy favourite: 2,353 Elo points against 2,050 — a 303-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GIL Vicente have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; FC Porto have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | Rio Ave(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Felgueiras 1932(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 16, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-3 | Primeira Liga |
| May 11, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Arouca(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 2-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Torreense(home) | 1-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 GIL Vicente win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 FC Porto win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | FC Porto 3-0 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 18, 2025 | GIL Vicente 0-2 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Jan 19, 2025 | GIL Vicente 3-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 10, 2024 | FC Porto 3-0 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 25, 2024 | GIL Vicente 1-1 FC Porto | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 23, 2023 | FC Porto 2-1 GIL Vicente | Primeira Liga |
Last archived meeting: FC Porto vs GIL Vicente on Jan 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
GIL Vicente score 1.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; FC Porto score 1.5 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GIL Vicente | 1.2 | 1.5 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| FC Porto | 1.5 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GIL Vicente sit 8th in Primeira Liga (3 points from 1 matches) and FC Porto sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | GIL Vicente | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GIL Vicente vs FC Porto?
- The Footlab model makes FC Porto the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for GIL Vicente.
- Where and when is GIL Vicente vs FC Porto played?
- GIL Vicente vs FC Porto is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.