Estrela vs Casa Pia: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, Amadora
The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Casa Pia. The most likely score is 1-1. If Estrela wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?
On Elo ratings, Estrela has 2,060 points and Casa Pia 2,041.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Estrela vs Casa Pia
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Estrela
4-2-3-1- 37L. Antonetti
- 10I. Stoica
- 99A. Marcus
- 14L. Zvonarek
- 39Eddy Doue
- 78Santiago Serra
- 55Rafa Soares
- 5S. Leković
- 21M. Scholze
- 4Bernardo Schappo
- 24Léo Linck
Casa Pia
4-2-3-1- 9Henrique Araújo
- 80L. Ofori
- 16Silvi
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís Rêgo
- 11M. El Boukammiri
- 77B. Pauwels
- 18Geraldes
- 43David Sousa
- 75Pedro Rosas
- 3Kaly
- 95Ivan Mandić
Computed on October 8, 2026 at 11:19 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estrela have 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 defeats; Casa Pia have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Academico Viseu(home) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Rio Ave(away) | 3-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | SC Braga(home) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 2-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Nacional(away) | 3-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Estoril(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | FC Porto(home) | 1-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Moreirense(home) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 24, 2026 | GIL Vicente(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Estrela wins, 0 draws, 3 Casa Pia wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 2026 | Estrela 1-2 Casa Pia | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 20, 2026 | Estrela 4-0 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Casa Pia 3-5 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 9, 2025 | Casa Pia 1-0 Estrela | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Estrela 0-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
| Mar 8, 2024 | Estrela 3-1 Casa Pia | Primeira Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Estrela score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Casa Pia score 0.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estrela | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Casa Pia | 0.7 | 1.7 | 4 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estrela sit 8th in Primeira Liga (10 points from 7 matches) and Casa Pia sit 17th (4 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Estrela | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 14 | 10 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 4 |
A question about Estrela vs Casa Pia?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estrela vs Casa Pia?
- The Footlab AI model makes Estrela the favourite at 56%, against 23% for a draw and 21% for Casa Pia.
- Where and when is Estrela vs Casa Pia played?
- Estrela vs Casa Pia is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo Municipal dos Prazeres, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.