Nacional vs SC Braga: prediction and stats
Primeira LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira
The Footlab AI model makes SC Braga the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Nacional. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 1,754 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nacional vs SC Braga?
SC Braga is a heavy favourite: 2,335 Elo points against 2,031, a 305-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Nacional vs SC Braga
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Nacional
4-1-4-1- 99Pablo Ruan
- 6Matheus Dias
- 8Miguel Baeza
- 52Wesley Gasolina
- 7M. Jensen
- 21W. Kokolo
- 38Zé Vitor
- 33Francisco Gonçalves
- 34Léo Santos
- 5José Gomes
- 1Renato Bellucci
SC Braga
3-4-3- 10Pau Victor
- 17J. Milošević
- 21Ricardo Horta
- 8João Moutinho
- 2Víctor Gómez
- 77Gabri Martínez
- 34E. Tıknaz
- 6Vitor Carvalho
- 14G. Lagerbielke
- 37A. Barišić
- 31Bernardo Fontes
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:43 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nacional have 3 wins, 4 draws and 8 defeats; SC Braga have 7, 7 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-4 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Alverca(home) | 1-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Sporting CP(away) | 0-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 30, 2026 | Estrela(home) | 2-3 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Guimaraes(away) | 0-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santa Clara(away) | 0-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Estoril(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Estrela(away) | 1-2 | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Alverca(away) | 2-1 | Primeira Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Guimaraes(home) | 1-0 | Primeira Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Nacional win, 0 draws, 5 SC Braga wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Nacional 1-2 SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| Nov 23, 2025 | SC Braga 4-2 Nacional | Taça de Portugal |
| Sep 28, 2025 | SC Braga 0-1 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Feb 21, 2025 | SC Braga 1-0 Nacional | Primeira Liga |
| Sep 20, 2024 | Nacional 0-3 SC Braga | Primeira Liga |
| Dec 22, 2023 | Nacional 1-3 SC Braga | Taça da Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Nacional score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; SC Braga score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nacional | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| SC Braga | 1.4 | 0.7 | 9 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nacional sit 15th in Primeira Liga (4 points from 7 matches) and SC Braga sit 6th (11 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | SC Braga | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 11 |
| 15 | Nacional | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 15 | 4 |
A question about Nacional vs SC Braga?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nacional vs SC Braga?
- The Footlab AI model makes SC Braga the favourite at 67%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Nacional.
- Where and when is Nacional vs SC Braga played?
- Nacional vs SC Braga is played on October 25, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio da Madeira, in the Primeira Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.