Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 8Kick-off on September 14, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC)Estadio AKRON, Zapopan
The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for U.N.A.M. - Pumas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Guadalajara Chivas (1,994) and U.N.A.M. - Pumas (1,956).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Guadalajara Chivas have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; U.N.A.M. - Pumas have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Tijuana(home) | 5-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Santos Laguna(away) | 1-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Club Queretaro(home) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 0-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FC Juarez(away) | 5-1 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Guadalajara Chivas win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas 2-2 U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| Oct 6, 2025 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas 1-2 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Mar 2, 2025 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
| Nov 3, 2024 | Guadalajara Chivas 0-0 U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| Feb 25, 2024 | Guadalajara Chivas 3-1 U.N.A.M. - Pumas | Liga MX |
| Dec 4, 2023 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas 3-0 Guadalajara Chivas | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas on Apr 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Guadalajara Chivas score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; U.N.A.M. - Pumas score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.5 | 1.0 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 1.5 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Guadalajara Chivas sit 12th in Liga MX (4 points from 3 matches) and U.N.A.M. - Pumas sit 4th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Guadalajara Chivas | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 |
| 12 | Guadalajara Chivas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas?
- The Footlab model makes Guadalajara Chivas the favourite at 59%, against 23% for a draw and 18% for U.N.A.M. - Pumas.
- Where and when is Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas played?
- Guadalajara Chivas vs U.N.A.M. - Pumas is played on September 14, 2026 at 12:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio AKRON, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.