Toluca vs Atlas: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 8Kick-off on September 13, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 68%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Atlas. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toluca vs Atlas?
Toluca starts as the favourite with a 210-point Elo edge (2,056 vs 1,846).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Atlas have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlante FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FC Dallas(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(home) | 0-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Seattle Sounders(home) | 3-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Necaxa(home) | 3-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tigres UANL(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Columbus Crew(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 0-2 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Toluca win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Atlas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Toluca 1-1 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Atlas 0-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Atlas 2-3 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Toluca 4-1 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Toluca 4-1 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Atlas 0-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atlas score 0.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 1.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Atlas | 0.9 | 1.1 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toluca sit 3rd in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Atlas sit 9th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Toluca | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 6 |
| 4 | Atlas | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Toluca | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 7 |
| 9 | Atlas | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toluca vs Atlas?
- The Footlab model makes Toluca the favourite at 68%, against 21% for a draw and 12% for Atlas.
- Where and when is Toluca vs Atlas played?
- Toluca vs Atlas is played on September 13, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Nemesio Díez, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.