Toluca vs Atlas: result 5-2 and analysis
Liga MXApertura - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:05 PM (UTC)Estadio Nemesio Díez, Toluca de Lerdo
Full time
What was the result of Toluca vs Atlas?
Toluca won 5-2 on September 12, 2026.
Goalscorers
- 19′A. VegaToluca (pen.)
- 22′J. AnguloToluca
- 29′F. ViñasToluca
- 51′F. MonzónAtlas
- 53′PaulinhoToluca
- 60′J. RodríguezToluca (o.g.)
- 79′DukAtlas
What had the model predicted before the match?
Before kick-off, the Footlab AI model gave a Toluca win at 67%: prediction correct. Most likely score announced: 2-0. Actual score: 5-2.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Official lineup for Toluca vs Atlas
The starting elevens fielded at kick-off.
Toluca
4-2-3-1- 16F. Viñas
- 9A. Vega
- 8N. Castro
- 11Helinho
- 10J. Angulo
- 5F. Romero
- 20J. Gallardo
- 6F. Pereira
- 4B. Méndez
- 2D. Barbosa
- 12R. Beltrán
Atlas
5-3-2- 27V. RÃos
- 9F. Monzón
- 10Luís Esteves
- 15Paulo Ramírez
- 58A. González
- 5J. Rodríguez
- 16M. Valenzuela
- 28M. Capasso
- 13G. Aguirre
- 3J. Sánchez
- 12C. Vargas
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toluca have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Atlas have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Leon(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 31, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 4-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Austin(home) | 2-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 2026 | Atlante FC(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 29, 2026 | Club Queretaro(home) | 1-3 | Liga MX |
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cruz Azul(away) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tigres UANL(home) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | FC Cincinnati(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Toluca wins, 3 draws, 0 Atlas wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Toluca 1-1 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Atlas 0-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Atlas 2-3 Toluca | Liga MX |
| Sep 28, 2024 | Toluca 4-1 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Apr 7, 2024 | Toluca 4-1 Atlas | Liga MX |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Atlas 0-0 Toluca | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Toluca score 1.7 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Atlas score 1.1 and concede 1.3.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 1.7 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Atlas | 1.1 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toluca sit 2nd in Liga MX (20 points from 11 matches) and Atlas sit 6th (18 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Toluca | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 25 | 15 | 20 |
| 6 | Atlas | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 18 | 18 |
A question about Toluca vs Atlas?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy