Leon vs Atletico San Luis: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio León (Nou Camp), León de los Aldamas
The Footlab model makes Leon the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Atletico San Luis. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leon vs Atletico San Luis?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Leon (1,895) and Atletico San Luis (1,817).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leon have 11 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Atletico San Luis have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Monterrey(home) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Necaxa(away) | 2-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 3-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 1-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Club America(away) | 0-3 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Orlando City SC(away) | 2-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 1-4 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 2-4 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Club Tijuana(home) | 0-0 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Leon win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Atletico San Luis win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Atletico San Luis 1-2 Leon | Liga MX |
| Jul 14, 2025 | Leon 0-1 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| Feb 17, 2025 | Atletico San Luis 1-2 Leon | Liga MX |
| Sep 21, 2024 | Leon 1-0 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Leon 1-0 Atletico San Luis | Liga MX |
| Nov 24, 2023 | Atletico San Luis 3-2 Leon | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Atletico San Luis vs Leon on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leon score 2.2 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico San Luis score 1.1 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon | 2.2 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Atletico San Luis | 1.1 | 2.0 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leon sit 14th in Liga MX (3 points from 3 matches) and Atletico San Luis sit 15th (2 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Leon | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 14 | Leon | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Atletico San Luis | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 2 |
| 16 | Atletico San Luis | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leon vs Atletico San Luis?
- The Footlab model makes Leon the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Atletico San Luis.
- Where and when is Leon vs Atletico San Luis played?
- Leon vs Atletico San Luis is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio León (Nou Camp), in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.