Monterrey vs Tigres UANL: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 8Kick-off on September 14, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC)Estadio BBVA, Guadalupe
The Footlab model makes Monterrey the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Tigres UANL. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Monterrey vs Tigres UANL?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Monterrey (1,957) and Tigres UANL (1,965).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Monterrey have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Tigres UANL have 4, 7 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Juarez(home) | 6-1 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Nashville SC(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Inter Miami(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 1-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Atlas(away) | 2-0 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atlas(away) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 0-0 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Club Queretaro(away) | 2-3 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Monterrey win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Tigres UANL win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Tigres UANL 1-0 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Monterrey 1-1 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| Apr 13, 2025 | Tigres UANL 2-1 Monterrey | Liga MX |
| Oct 20, 2024 | Monterrey 4-2 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| May 13, 2024 | Monterrey 1-1 Tigres UANL | Liga MX |
| May 10, 2024 | Tigres UANL 1-2 Monterrey | Liga MX |
Last archived meeting: Tigres UANL vs Monterrey on Mar 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Monterrey score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Tigres UANL score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Monterrey | 1.9 | 1.5 | 2 | 12/15 | 12/15 |
| Tigres UANL | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Monterrey sit 5th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Tigres UANL sit 16th (1 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Monterrey | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 9 |
| 5 | Monterrey | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 6 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 |
| 16 | Tigres UANL | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Monterrey vs Tigres UANL?
- The Footlab model makes Monterrey the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Tigres UANL.
- Where and when is Monterrey vs Tigres UANL played?
- Monterrey vs Tigres UANL is played on September 14, 2026 at 02:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio BBVA, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.