Necaxa vs Puebla: prediction and stats
Liga MXApertura - 8Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC)Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes
The Footlab model makes Necaxa the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Puebla. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 20, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Necaxa vs Puebla?
Necaxa starts as the favourite with a 114-point Elo edge (1,848 vs 1,734).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Necaxa have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Puebla have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | Leon(home) | 1-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | New York City FC(away) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 1-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Chicago Fire(away) | 0-2 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Toluca(away) | 1-3 | Liga MX |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 18, 2026 | CF Pachuca(away) | 3-2 | Liga MX |
| Aug 13, 2026 | San Diego(away) | 2-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Austin(away) | 0-3 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Portland Timbers(away) | 2-5 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guadalajara Chivas(home) | 1-1 | Liga MX |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Necaxa win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Puebla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Puebla 0-0 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Necaxa 1-0 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Puebla 0-1 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Jul 13, 2024 | Necaxa 4-1 Puebla | Liga MX |
| Jan 20, 2024 | Puebla 1-2 Necaxa | Liga MX |
| Oct 8, 2023 | Necaxa 1-2 Puebla | Liga MX |
How many goals should we expect?
Necaxa score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Puebla score 1.0 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Necaxa | 1.4 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Puebla | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Necaxa sit 8th in Liga MX (6 points from 3 matches) and Puebla sit 11th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Puebla | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| 8 | Necaxa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | Puebla | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | Necaxa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Necaxa vs Puebla?
- The Footlab model makes Necaxa the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 17% for Puebla.
- Where and when is Necaxa vs Puebla played?
- Necaxa vs Puebla is played on September 12, 2026 at 01:00 AM (UTC) at Estadio Victoria, in the Liga MX.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.