Where and when is Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 played?

Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 is played on December 12, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Hamburger SV

FC Schalke 04

The Footlab model makes Hamburger SV the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for FC Schalke 04. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04?

A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Hamburger SV (2,057) and FC Schalke 04 (2,047).

Hamburger SV win42 %

Draw25 %

FC Schalke 04 win33 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Hamburger SV have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; FC Schalke 04 have 10, 0 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
May 16, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen(away)	1-1	Bundesliga

FC Schalke 04
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 16, 2026	Real Madrid(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Atalanta(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Hessen Kassel(away)	5-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 22, 2026	Metalist 1925 Kharkiv(away)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Hamburger SV win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 FC Schalke 04 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 19, 2025	FC Schalke 04 2-2 Hamburger SV	2. Bundesliga
Nov 23, 2024	Hamburger SV 2-2 FC Schalke 04	2. Bundesliga
Jan 20, 2024	FC Schalke 04 0-2 Hamburger SV	2. Bundesliga
Jul 28, 2023	Hamburger SV 5-3 FC Schalke 04	2. Bundesliga
Dec 18, 2021	Hamburger SV 1-1 FC Schalke 04	2. Bundesliga
Jul 23, 2021	FC Schalke 04 1-3 Hamburger SV	2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FC Schalke 04 vs Hamburger SV on Apr 19, 2025

How many goals should we expect?

Hamburger SV score 1.4 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; FC Schalke 04 score 1.8 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Hamburger SV	1.4	1.9	0	13/15	11/15
FC Schalke 04	1.8	1.3	5	6/15	10/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04?: The Footlab model makes Hamburger SV the favourite at 42%, against 25% for a draw and 33% for FC Schalke 04.
Where and when is Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 played?: Hamburger SV vs FC Schalke 04 is played on December 12, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Volksparkstadion, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.