Where and when is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin played?

VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin is played on December 12, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MHPArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MHPArena, Stuttgart

VfB Stuttgart

Union Berlin

The Footlab model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Union Berlin. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?

VfB Stuttgart starts as the favourite with a 218-point Elo edge (2,252 vs 2,034).

VfB Stuttgart win63 %

Draw19 %

Union Berlin win18 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, VfB Stuttgart have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Union Berlin have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

VfB Stuttgart
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Hansa Rostock(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Fulham(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Everton(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Paris FC(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Kickers Offenbach(away)	8-1	Friendlies Clubs

Union Berlin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Eintracht Braunschweig(away)	4-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Ipswich(home)	2-4	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Aris(home)	3-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 2, 2026	Cagliari(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Dynamo Dresden(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 VfB Stuttgart win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Union Berlin win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 18, 2026	VfB Stuttgart 1-1 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Aug 23, 2025	Union Berlin 2-1 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
Apr 19, 2025	Union Berlin 4-4 VfB Stuttgart	Bundesliga
Dec 6, 2024	VfB Stuttgart 3-2 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Mar 8, 2024	VfB Stuttgart 2-0 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Oct 31, 2023	VfB Stuttgart 1-0 Union Berlin	DFB Pokal

Last archived meeting: VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin on Jan 18, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

VfB Stuttgart score 3.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Union Berlin score 2.5 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 73% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
VfB Stuttgart	3.1	1.3	4	9/15	13/15
Union Berlin	2.5	1.9	1	13/15	12/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

VfB Stuttgart sit 4th in Bundesliga (62 points from 34 matches) and Union Berlin sit 11th (39 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	VfB Stuttgart	34	18	8	8	71	49	62
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44	58	39

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin?: The Footlab model makes VfB Stuttgart the favourite at 63%, against 19% for a draw and 18% for Union Berlin.
Where and when is VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin played?: VfB Stuttgart vs Union Berlin is played on December 12, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MHPArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 73% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.