Match

FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz

FSV Mainz 05SC Freiburg

The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for SC Freiburg. The most likely score is 1-1. If FSV Mainz 05 wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 4,566 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 5, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?

On Elo ratings, FSV Mainz 05 has 2,114 points and SC Freiburg 2,213.

44%24%32%
FSV Mainz 05 winDrawSC Freiburg win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

FSV Mainz 05

3-5-2
  1. 9P. Tietz
  2. 23S. Becker
  1. 2P. Mwene
  2. 6K. Sano
  3. 10N. Amiri
  4. 19A. Caci
  5. 7Lee Jae-Sung
  1. 4S. Posch
  2. 48K. Potulski
  3. 21D. da Costa
  1. 1A. Schwolow

SC Freiburg

4-2-3-1
  1. 9L. Höler
  1. 8M. Eggestein
  2. 14Y. Suzuki
  3. 19J. Beste
  4. 7D. Scherhant
  5. 16Y. Engelhardt
  1. 28M. Ginter
  2. 33J. Makengo
  3. 3P. Lienhart
  4. 17L. Kübler
  1. 1M. Backhaus

Computed on November 5, 2026 at 06:43 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; SC Freiburg have 11, 1 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

FSV Mainz 05
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 30, 2026SV Elversberg(away)1-4Bundesliga
Oct 27, 2026VfL Bochum(away)0-2DFB Pokal
Oct 24, 2026Werder Bremen(home)2-3Bundesliga
Oct 17, 2026FC Schalke 04(away)1-0Bundesliga
Oct 10, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(home)3-4Bundesliga
SC Freiburg
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 31, 2026FC Augsburg(away)2-1Bundesliga
Oct 28, 2026VfL Wolfsburg(home)3-2DFB Pokal
Oct 25, 2026Bayern München(home)1-3Bundesliga
Oct 22, 2026Monaco(away)0-3UEFA Europa Conference League
Oct 18, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(away)1-2Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FSV Mainz 05 wins, 3 draws, 3 SC Freiburg wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 12, 2026FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Nov 30, 2025SC Freiburg 4-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Mar 15, 2025FSV Mainz 05 2-2 SC FreiburgBundesliga
Nov 3, 2024SC Freiburg 0-0 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Apr 21, 2024SC Freiburg 1-1 FSV Mainz 05Bundesliga
Dec 3, 2023FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC FreiburgBundesliga

Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg on Apr 12, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

FSV Mainz 05 score 2.6 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; SC Freiburg score 2.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
FSV Mainz 052.61.577/1511/15
SC Freiburg2.71.5212/1514/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

FSV Mainz 05 sit 9th in Bundesliga (10 points from 8 matches) and SC Freiburg sit 3rd (16 points from 8 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
3SC Freiburg8512181016
9FSV Mainz 058314171710

A question about FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
The Footlab AI model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for SC Freiburg.
Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg played?
FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg is played on December 12, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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Next match: FSV Mainz 05 and SC Freiburg

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