FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg: prediction and stats
BundesligaRegular Season - 13Kick-off on December 12, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)MEWA ARENA, Mainz
The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for SC Freiburg. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate FSV Mainz 05 (2,155) and SC Freiburg (2,192).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FSV Mainz 05 have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; SC Freiburg have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Krieschow(away) | 9-0 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Paris FC(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Shabab Al Ahli Dubai(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortuna Düsseldorf(away) | 5-1 | DFB Pokal |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Motherwell(away) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Derby(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 FSV Mainz 05 win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 SC Freiburg win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 12, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| Nov 30, 2025 | SC Freiburg 4-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Mar 15, 2025 | FSV Mainz 05 2-2 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
| Nov 3, 2024 | SC Freiburg 0-0 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Apr 21, 2024 | SC Freiburg 1-1 FSV Mainz 05 | Bundesliga |
| Dec 3, 2023 | FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SC Freiburg | Bundesliga |
Last archived meeting: FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg on Apr 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FSV Mainz 05 score 3.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; SC Freiburg score 2.2 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 6 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| SC Freiburg | 2.2 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th in Bundesliga (40 points from 34 matches) and SC Freiburg sit 7th (47 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | SC Freiburg | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 51 | 57 | 47 |
| 10 | FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 44 | 53 | 40 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg?
- The Footlab model makes FSV Mainz 05 the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for SC Freiburg.
- Where and when is FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg played?
- FSV Mainz 05 vs SC Freiburg is played on December 12, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at MEWA ARENA, in the Bundesliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 12, 2026Werder BremenvsBayer Leverkusen
- Dec 12, 2026Borussia MönchengladbachvsEintracht Frankfurt
- Dec 12, 2026Borussia DortmundvsFC Augsburg
- Dec 12, 20261899 HoffenheimvsBayern München
- Dec 12, 2026VfB StuttgartvsUnion Berlin
- Dec 12, 2026Hamburger SVvsFC Schalke 04
- Dec 12, 2026SC Paderborn 07vsSV Elversberg
- Dec 12, 20261. FC KölnvsRB Leipzig