Iceland U21 vs France U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 19Kick-off on September 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Laugardalsvöllur, Reykjavík
The Footlab model makes France U21 the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Iceland U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Iceland U21 vs France U21?
France U21 starts as the favourite with a 186-point Elo edge (1,692 vs 1,506).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Iceland U21 have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; France U21 have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | France U21(away) | 1-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Estonia U21(home) | 6-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Luxembourg U21(away) | 3-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Luxembourg U21(home) | 2-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Switzerland U21(away) | 0-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Iceland U21(home) | 2-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Luxembourg U21(away) | 5-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Faroe Islands U21(home) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Switzerland U21(away) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Estonia U21(home) | 6-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Iceland U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 France U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | France U21 2-1 Iceland U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 31, 2021 | Iceland U21 0-2 France U21 | UEFA U21 Championship |
Last archived meeting: France U21 vs Iceland U21 on Mar 30, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Iceland U21 score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; France U21 score 2.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iceland U21 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| France U21 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Iceland U21 sit 3rd in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (11 points from 7 matches) and France U21 sit 1st (16 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France U21 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | Iceland U21 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 9 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Iceland U21 vs France U21?
- The Footlab model makes France U21 the favourite at 47%, against 23% for a draw and 29% for Iceland U21.
- Where and when is Iceland U21 vs France U21 played?
- Iceland U21 vs France U21 is played on September 25, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Laugardalsvöllur, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 25, 2026England U21vsKazakhstan U21
- Sep 25, 2026Netherlands U21vsNorway U21
- Sep 25, 2026Slovakia U21vsRepublic of Ireland U21
- Sep 25, 2026Switzerland U21vsLuxembourg U21
- Sep 26, 2026Croatia U21vsHungary U21
- Sep 26, 2026Georgia U21vsGreece U21
- Sep 26, 2026Latvia U21vsGermany U21
- Sep 26, 2026Malta U21vsNorthern Ireland U21